{"id":11983,"date":"2026-07-28T19:12:11","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T19:12:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/?p=11983"},"modified":"2026-08-19T08:16:41","modified_gmt":"2026-08-19T08:16:41","slug":"asml-reszveny-jo-befektetes-az-ai-rali-utan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/asml-reszveny-jo-befektetes-az-ai-rali-utan\/","title":{"rendered":"ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny: j\u00f3 befektet\u00e9s az AI-rali ut\u00e1n?","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny \u00e1rfolyama 2025-26-ban az AI hype hat\u00e1s\u00e1ra az egekbe emelkedett, kev\u00e9s c\u00e9g profit\u00e1lt ebb\u0151l annyira, mint a holland v\u00e1llalat. A r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny\u00e1r egy \u00e9v alatt nagyj\u00e1b\u00f3l megdupl\u00e1z\u00f3dott, \u00e9s sokan k\u00e9rdezik: <strong>van-e m\u00e9g t\u00e9r felfel\u00e9, vagy lek\u00e9st\u00fck a rallit? <\/strong>Ebben a cikkben v\u00e9gigveszem, mit\u0151l ennyire k\u00fcl\u00f6nleges az ASML, mennyit \u00e1raz be m\u00e1r a piac, hogyan viszonyul az Nvidi\u00e1hoz \u00e9s a TSMC-hez, \u00e9s milyen kock\u00e1zatokkal kell sz\u00e1molni, ha valaki ma sz\u00e1llna be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-preformatted\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">\ud83d\udc46<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">Ahol a rajzsz\u00f6g jelet l\u00e1tj\u00e1tok, ott a gyakorlati tapasztalataimat osztom meg veletek, mert ez sokkal \u00e9letszer\u0171bb\u00e9 teszi a cikkeket.<\/mark><\/mark><\/mark><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A r\u00e9szv\u00e9nyek aloldal\u00e1t r\u00e9szletes adatokkal itt tal\u00e1lj\u00e1tok: <a class=\"nturl\" href=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/stocks\/ASML\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny oldal<\/a><br>Ha az oldal m\u00e9lyelemz\u00e9seit keresitek, akkor erre a linkre nyomjatok: <a href=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/category\/reszvenyelemzes\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">iO Charts r\u00e9szv\u00e9nyelemz\u00e9sek<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/?aff_id=155122\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">Az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny \u00e1rfolyama a TradingView fel\u00fclet\u00e9n<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-symbol-overview.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"lineWidth\": 2,\n  \"lineType\": 0,\n  \"chartType\": \"area\",\n  \"fontColor\": \"rgb(106, 109, 120)\",\n  \"gridLineColor\": \"rgba(46, 46, 46, 0.06)\",\n  \"volumeUpColor\": \"rgba(34, 171, 148, 0.5)\",\n  \"volumeDownColor\": \"rgba(247, 82, 95, 0.5)\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#ffffff\",\n  \"widgetFontColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"upColor\": \"#22ab94\",\n  \"downColor\": \"#f7525f\",\n  \"borderUpColor\": \"#22ab94\",\n  \"borderDownColor\": \"#f7525f\",\n  \"wickUpColor\": \"#22ab94\",\n  \"wickDownColor\": \"#f7525f\",\n  \"colorTheme\": \"light\",\n  \"isTransparent\": false,\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"chartOnly\": false,\n  \"scalePosition\": \"right\",\n  \"scaleMode\": \"Normal\",\n  \"fontFamily\": \"-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Trebuchet MS, Roboto, Ubuntu, sans-serif\",\n  \"valuesTracking\": \"1\",\n  \"changeMode\": \"price-and-percent\",\n  \"symbols\": [\n    [\n      \"NASDAQ:ASML|60M\"\n    ]\n  ],\n  \"dateRanges\": [\n    \"1d|1\",\n    \"1m|30\",\n    \"3m|60\",\n    \"12m|1D\",\n    \"60m|1W\",\n    \"all|1M\"\n  ],\n  \"fontSize\": \"10\",\n  \"headerFontSize\": \"medium\",\n  \"autosize\": false,\n  \"width\": \"100%\",\n  \"height\": 400,\n  \"noTimeScale\": false,\n  \"hideDateRanges\": false,\n  \"hideMarketStatus\": false,\n  \"hideSymbolLogo\": false\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gyors \u00f6sszegz\u00e9s: \u00e9rdemes ma az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9nnyel foglalkozni?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A r\u00f6vid v\u00e1lasz: <strong>az ASML kiv\u00e9teles min\u0151s\u00e9g\u0171 v\u00e1llalat, de a mai \u00e1raz\u00e1s m\u00e1r t\u00f6k\u00e9leteshez k\u00f6zeli v\u00e9grehajt\u00e1st felt\u00e9telez.<\/strong> A c\u00e9g a vil\u00e1g egyetlen olyan szerepl\u0151je, amely a legfejlettebb chipek gy\u00e1rt\u00e1s\u00e1hoz n\u00e9lk\u00fcl\u00f6zhetetlen EUV-litogr\u00e1fiai g\u00e9peket k\u00e9sz\u00edti, gyakorlatilag monopolhelyzetben. A 2026 m\u00e1sodik negyed\u00e9ves eredm\u00e9nyek fel\u00fclm\u00falt\u00e1k a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokat (9.3 milli\u00e1rd EUR-s \u00e1rbev\u00e9tel, 54%-os brutt\u00f3 marzs), \u00e9s a menedzsment az \u00e9ves kil\u00e1t\u00e1sokat m\u00e1r m\u00e1sodszor emelte, 43-45 milli\u00e1rd EUR k\u00f6z\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"667\" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/ASML-machinery-1024x667.webp\" alt=\"a k\u00e9pen egy 200 milli\u00f3 USD-s ASML g\u00e9p l\u00e1that\u00f3\" class=\"wp-image-11991 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/667;width:1140px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/ASML-machinery-1024x667.webp 1024w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/ASML-machinery-414x270.webp 414w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/ASML-machinery-768x501.webp 768w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/ASML-machinery-1536x1001.webp 1536w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/ASML-machinery-2048x1335.webp 2048w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/ASML-machinery-scaled.webp 1110w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">forr\u00e1s: https:\/\/www.techspot.com\/, a k\u00e9pen egy 200 milli\u00f3 USD-s ASML g\u00e9p l\u00e1that\u00f3<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A gond nem a c\u00e9g m\u0171k\u00f6d\u00e9s\u00e9n\u00e9l, hanem az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny \u00e1r\u00e1n\u00e1l keresend\u0151. A k\u00e9p egy\u00e9rtelm\u0171:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\ud83d\udcc8 Trailing P\/E: ~52:<\/strong> az \u00e9vtizedes historikus s\u00e1v fels\u0151 harmad\u00e1ban.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83d\udd2e Forward P\/E: ~29.5:<\/strong> a j\u00f6v\u0151beli n\u00f6veked\u00e9ssel korrig\u00e1lva alacsonyabb, de m\u00e9g mindig pr\u00e9mium.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83d\udcb0 FCF-hozam: 1.81%:<\/strong> ez a bemutatott \u00e9vtized legalacsonyabb \u00e9rt\u00e9ke (2018-ban 4.38% volt), vagyis a r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny a saj\u00e1t historikus \u00e1tlagaihoz k\u00e9pest is nagyon magas \u00e9rt\u00e9kelts\u00e9gen forog.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-preformatted\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">\ud83d\udca1R\u00f6viden: az ASML \u00fczletileg makul\u00e1tlan, de az \u00e1raz\u00e1sa azt felt\u00e9telezi, hogy az AI-beruh\u00e1z\u00e1si ciklus m\u00e9g \u00e9vekig zavartalanul tart. A k\u00e9rd\u00e9s nem az, hogy j\u00f3 c\u00e9g-e, hanem hogy a j\u00f3 h\u00edrek nagy r\u00e9sze benne van-e m\u00e1r az \u00e1rban. <strong>Szerintem l\u00e9nyeg\u00e9ben igen.<\/strong><\/mark><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\ud83d\udcccGyakorlatban:<\/strong> ahogy a legt\u00f6bb hype-olt AI-n\u00e9vn\u00e9l, itt is az a csapda, hogy a min\u0151s\u00e9g \u00e9s a r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny \u00e1raz\u00e1sa k\u00e9t k\u00fcl\u00f6n k\u00e9rd\u00e9s. Az ASML az egyik legjobb v\u00e1llalat, amit valaha elemeztem, de egy kiv\u00e1l\u00f3 c\u00e9get is lehet dr\u00e1g\u00e1n venni. \u00c9n ilyenkor mindig a historikus \u00e9rt\u00e9kelts\u00e9gi s\u00e1vot n\u00e9zem: a NOPAT\/EV most 1.87%, mik\u00f6zben az \u00e9vtizedben 4.65%-ig is felment. Vagyis a r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny \u00e1raz\u00e1sa l\u00e9nyeg\u00e9ben nulla biztons\u00e1gi r\u00e1hagy\u00e1st tartalmaz a jelenlegi ~1430 EUR-s \u00e1r mellett.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Amit viszont nem szabad elfelejtened, hogy a kiemelked\u0151 min\u0151s\u00e9g\u0171 c\u00e9gek tendenci\u00f3zusan t\u00falteljes\u00edtik a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokat, p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul a Morningstar a fair \u00e9rt\u00e9kre 1800 EUR-t hat\u00e1roz meg. Ett\u0151l m\u00e9g b\u0151 egy \u00e9ve 600 EUR alatt is j\u00e1rt az \u00e1rfolyam \u00e9s az ilyen brut\u00e1lis fel\u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u0151d\u00e9s \u00e1ltal\u00e1ban azt sejteti, hogy b\u0151ven van m\u00e9g lefele t\u00e9r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/lightyear.com\/en-eu\/profile\/jozsef491\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"256\" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Lightyear-blue-white-1024x256.jpg.webp\" alt=\"LightYear banner\" class=\"wp-image-9688 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/256;width:1140px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Lightyear-blue-white-1024x256.jpg.webp 1024w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Lightyear-blue-white-414x104.jpg.webp 414w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Lightyear-blue-white-768x192.jpg.webp 768w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Lightyear-blue-white-scaled.jpg.webp 1110w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mi\u00e9rt kulcsszerepl\u0151 az ASML az AI-chipek ell\u00e1t\u00e1si l\u00e1nc\u00e1ban?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A modern mesters\u00e9ges intelligencia, a ChatGPT, a Claude, az Nvidia adatk\u00f6zponti chipjei, fizikailag olyan f\u00e9lvezet\u0151k\u00f6n fut, amelyeket csak a vil\u00e1g legfejlettebb gy\u00e1raiban lehet el\u0151\u00e1ll\u00edtani, ezeket nagy r\u00e9szben a TSMC birtokolja. \u00c9s ezeket a gy\u00e1rakat egyetlen dolog n\u00e9lk\u00fcl nem lehet fel\u00e9p\u00edteni:<strong> az ASML litogr\u00e1fiai g\u00e9pei n\u00e9lk\u00fcl.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-wp-embed is-provider-be-gyaz-s wp-block-embed-be-gyaz-s\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"mhngnYsnsz\"><a href=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/tsmc-vagy-nvidia\/\">TSMC vagy Nvidia: melyik AI-chip r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny lehet jobb befektet\u00e9s?<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content lazyload\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;TSMC vagy Nvidia: melyik AI-chip r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny lehet jobb befektet\u00e9s?&#8221; &#8212; \" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/tsmc-vagy-nvidia\/embed\/#?secret=isaQAndNUG#?secret=mhngnYsnsz\" data-secret=\"mhngnYsnsz\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" data-load-mode=\"1\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A litogr\u00e1fia az a folyamat, amellyel a chip \u00e1ramk\u00f6reit \u201er\u00e1nyomtatj\u00e1k&#8221; a szil\u00edciumszeletre. Min\u00e9l kisebb \u00e9s s\u0171r\u0171bb az \u00e1ramk\u00f6r, ann\u00e1l nagyobb a teljes\u00edtm\u00e9ny, \u00e9s a legkisebb cs\u00edksz\u00e9less\u00e9gekhez m\u00e1r nem el\u00e9g a hagyom\u00e1nyos gy\u00e1rt\u00e1stechnol\u00f3gia. <strong>Ahogyan folyamatosan cs\u00f6kkent a cs\u00edksz\u00e9less\u00e9g az EUV (extr\u00e9m ultraibolya) litogr\u00e1fia \u00fagy nyert folyamatosan teret, ami egy elk\u00e9peszt\u0151en bonyolult technol\u00f3gia, amihez g\u00e9peket a F\u00f6ld\u00f6n egyetlen c\u00e9g gy\u00e1rt sorozatban: az ASML.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-wp-embed is-provider-be-gyaz-s wp-block-embed-be-gyaz-s\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"dk8uWShQjE\"><a href=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/intel-reszveny-2026-ban-a-chipgyartas-kiralya-lesz\/\">Intel r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny: 2026-ban a chipgy\u00e1rt\u00e1s kir\u00e1lya lesz?<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content lazyload\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Intel r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny: 2026-ban a chipgy\u00e1rt\u00e1s kir\u00e1lya lesz?&#8221; &#8212; \" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/intel-reszveny-2026-ban-a-chipgyartas-kiralya-lesz\/embed\/#?secret=OcfkBLR4uq#?secret=dk8uWShQjE\" data-secret=\"dk8uWShQjE\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" data-load-mode=\"1\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\ud83d\udd2c Minden fejlett AI-chip (Nvidia, AMD, Apple, a HBM-mem\u00f3ri\u00e1k) EUV-vel k\u00e9sz\u00fcl.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83c\udfed A TSMC, a Samsung \u00e9s az Intel, a vil\u00e1g vezet\u0151 chipgy\u00e1rt\u00f3i, mind ASML-g\u00e9peket v\u00e1s\u00e1rolnak.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83d\udcb0 Egyetlen High-NA EUV g\u00e9p \u00e1ra a t\u00f6bbsz\u00e1z milli\u00f3 EUR-s tartom\u00e1nyban van, \u00e9s egy fejlett gy\u00e1rhoz t\u00f6bb tucat kell ezekb\u0151l.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-preformatted\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">\ud83d\udca1Vagyis az ASML nem a chipeket gy\u00e1rtja, hanem az egyetlen olyan g\u00e9pet, ami n\u00e9lk\u00fcl a chipeket nem lehet legy\u00e1rtani. Ez a \u201ecs\u00e1k\u00e1ny \u00e9s \u00e1s\u00f3\" poz\u00edci\u00f3: az aranyl\u00e1z alatt nem az arany\u00e1s\u00f3, hanem a szersz\u00e1m\u00e1rus keres a legbiztosabban.<\/mark><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-wp-embed is-provider-be-gyaz-s wp-block-embed-be-gyaz-s\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"7PELBST29x\"><a href=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/amd-reszveny-a-chipgyartas-masodik-felvonasa-2026-ban\/\">AMD r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny: a chipgy\u00e1rt\u00e1s m\u00e1sodik felvon\u00e1sa 2026-ban?<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content lazyload\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;AMD r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny: a chipgy\u00e1rt\u00e1s m\u00e1sodik felvon\u00e1sa 2026-ban?&#8221; &#8212; \" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/amd-reszveny-a-chipgyartas-masodik-felvonasa-2026-ban\/embed\/#?secret=O40FU2624X#?secret=7PELBST29x\" data-secret=\"7PELBST29x\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" data-load-mode=\"1\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\ud83d\udcccGyakorlatban:<\/strong> \u00e9desap\u00e1m gyerekkor\u00e1ban, az 1950-60-as \u00e9vekben egy r\u00e1di\u00f3t p\u00e1r \u00e1ramk\u00f6ri elemb\u0151l \u00f6ssze tudott rakni, ezeket konkr\u00e9tan k\u00e9zbe lehetett fogni. A 70-es \u00e9vekben, mikor sz\u00e1m\u00edt\u00e1stechnikai fejleszt\u0151m\u00e9rn\u00f6kk\u00e9nt dolgozott, nyomtatott \u00e1ramk\u00f6r\u00f6kre forrasztgatt\u00e1k a k\u00fcl\u00f6nb\u00f6z\u0151 di\u00f3d\u00e1kat, tranzisztorokat \u00e9s kondenz\u00e1torokat, akkor ezek m\u00e9g szemmel l\u00e1that\u00f3 m\u00e9ret\u0171 \u00e1ramk\u00f6r\u00f6k voltak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Amikor a f\u0151iskol\u00e1n a tanulm\u00e1nyaimat v\u00e9geztem a 90-es \u00e9vek v\u00e9g\u00e9n, amikor az Intel Pentium III-as sorozata megjelent, 28 milli\u00f3 darab tranzisztort tartalmazott, m\u00edg ma egy Nvidia Blackwell (GB300) 208 milli\u00e1rdot! Ezt az iszonyatosan gyors sk\u00e1l\u00e1z\u00f3d\u00e1st \u00e9s miniat\u00fcriz\u00e1l\u00e1st m\u00e1r csak az ASML EUV g\u00e9peivel lehet elv\u00e9gezni, nem csoda, hogy az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny \u00e1rfolyama rak\u00e9tak\u00e9nt sz\u00e1rnyal: egyszer\u0171en nincs mivel kiv\u00e1ltani a technol\u00f3gi\u00e1t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ibkr.com\/referral\/balintzsolt366\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"256\" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/IBKR-banner-bonusz-200-usd-1024x256.jpg.webp\" alt=\"IBKR banner\" class=\"wp-image-9668 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/256;width:1140px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/IBKR-banner-bonusz-200-usd-1024x256.jpg.webp 1024w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/IBKR-banner-bonusz-200-usd-414x104.jpg.webp 414w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/IBKR-banner-bonusz-200-usd-768x192.jpg.webp 768w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/IBKR-banner-bonusz-200-usd-scaled.jpg.webp 1110w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny: EUV versenyel\u0151ny \u00e9rthet\u0151en, szakzsargon n\u00e9lk\u00fcl<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az ASML versenyel\u0151nye, vagyis a \u201emoatja&#8221;, a vil\u00e1g egyik legm\u00e9lyebb \u00e9s legv\u00e9dettebb poz\u00edci\u00f3ja. De mi\u00e9rt nem tudja senki lem\u00e1solni? az\u00e9rt, mert ez nem egyetlen okb\u00f3l, hanem t\u00f6bb egym\u00e1sra \u00e9p\u00fcl\u0151 r\u00e9tegb\u0151l \u00e1ll:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\ud83e\udde9 Elk\u00e9peszt\u0151 komplexit\u00e1s:<\/strong> egy EUV-g\u00e9p t\u00f6bb sz\u00e1zezer alkatr\u00e9szb\u0151l \u00e1ll, amiket extr\u00e9m pontoss\u00e1ggal illesztenek egym\u00e1shoz. Ezt \u00e9vtizedes fejleszt\u00e9s n\u00e9lk\u00fcl nem lehet reproduk\u00e1lni.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83c\udf10 Besz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00f3i \u00f6kosziszt\u00e9ma:<\/strong> az ASML nem egyed\u00fcl csin\u00e1lja \u00e9p\u00edti a g\u00e9peit, a n\u00e9met Zeiss adja az optik\u00e1t, t\u00f6bb ezer besz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00f3 a t\u00f6bbi alkatr\u00e9szt. Ezt a h\u00e1l\u00f3zatot nem lehet egyr\u0151l a kett\u0151re fel\u00e9p\u00edteni.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u23f3 \u00c9vtizedes el\u0151ny:<\/strong> az ASML t\u00f6bb mint 20 \u00e9vet \u00e9s t\u00edzmilli\u00e1rd EUR-t k\u00f6lt\u00f6tt el fejleszt\u00e9sekre, mire az EUV technol\u00f3gia m\u0171k\u00f6dni kezdett. Egy versenyt\u00e1rsnak null\u00e1r\u00f3l ugyanennyit kellene beleinveszt\u00e1lnia (b\u00e1r a k\u00ednai SMIC nagyon igyekszik ezt v\u00e9ghez vinni).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83d\udd27 Szervizbev\u00e9tel:<\/strong> a \u201eService and Field Option&#8221; bev\u00e9tele az 9.3 milli\u00e1rd EUR, vagyis a teljes bev\u00e9tel t\u00f6bb mint negyede j\u00f6n a telep\u00edtett g\u00e9ppark szervizel\u00e9s\u00e9b\u0151l, folyamatosan, magas marzs mellett, visszat\u00e9r\u0151 jelleggel.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-wp-embed is-provider-be-gyaz-s wp-block-embed-be-gyaz-s\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"kaUvr5BF0v\"><a href=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/microsoft-msft-esik-a-papir-ki-tudja-hol-all-meg-2\/\">Microsoft (MSFT) r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny 2026: es\u00e9s ut\u00e1n?<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content lazyload\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Microsoft (MSFT) r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny 2026: es\u00e9s ut\u00e1n?&#8221; &#8212; \" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/microsoft-msft-esik-a-papir-ki-tudja-hol-all-meg-2\/embed\/#?secret=Z9YK68Ycsi#?secret=kaUvr5BF0v\" data-secret=\"kaUvr5BF0v\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" data-load-mode=\"1\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-preformatted\"><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">\ud83d\udca1A l\u00e9nyeg: az ASML nem egyszer\u0171en piacvezet\u0151, hanem gyakorlatilag az egyetlen szerepl\u0151 az EUV-ben. <\/mark><\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">Ez a fajta monop\u00f3lium a befektet\u0151k egyik legkedveltebb versenyel\u0151nye, mert \u00e1raz\u00e1si er\u0151t \u00e9s kisz\u00e1m\u00edthat\u00f3 j\u00f6vedelmez\u0151s\u00e9get biztos\u00edt.<\/mark><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\ud83d\udcccGyakorlatban:<\/strong> a gazdas\u00e1gi v\u00e1r\u00e1rok m\u00e9lys\u00e9g\u00e9t egy sz\u00e1m mutatja meg a legjobban: az EUV-ben az ASML piaci r\u00e9szesed\u00e9se l\u00e9nyeg\u00e9ben 100%. Nincs m\u00e1sodik szerepl\u0151, ez a piac teljes m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben monopolisztikus. Az eg\u00e9sz \u00e9vtizedben \u00f6sszesen 44-48 EUV-g\u00e9pet adtak el \u00e9vente, ez egy alacsony darabsz\u00e1m\u00fa, extr\u00e9m magas \u00e1r\u00fa, monopol term\u00e9k.<strong> A hagyom\u00e1nyosabb (DUV) g\u00e9pekn\u00e9l van n\u00e9mi verseny (Canon, Nikon), de a legfejlettebb cs\u00edksz\u00e9less\u00e9gekn\u00e9l az ASML egyeduralkod\u00f3.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/wise.com\/invite\/ihpc\/balintzsoltk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"256\" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Wise-banner-hatter-v3-1024x256.jpg.webp\" alt=\"Wise banner\" class=\"wp-image-9669 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/256;width:1140px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Wise-banner-hatter-v3-1024x256.jpg.webp 1024w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Wise-banner-hatter-v3-414x104.jpg.webp 414w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Wise-banner-hatter-v3-768x192.jpg.webp 768w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Wise-banner-hatter-v3-scaled.jpg.webp 1110w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Az AI-f\u00e9lvezet\u0151k \u00e9rt\u00e9kl\u00e1nca: ASML, TSMC, Nvidia \u00e9s AMD<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ahhoz, hogy egy AI-chip a te adatk\u00f6zpontodba ker\u00fclj\u00f6n, egy eg\u00e9sz l\u00e1ncnak kell egy\u00fcttdolgoznia:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\ud83d\udee0\ufe0f ASML (a szersz\u00e1mk\u00e9sz\u00edt\u0151):<\/strong> legy\u00e1rtj\u00e1k az EUV-g\u00e9pet, ami n\u00e9lk\u00fcl semmi nem m\u0171k\u00f6dik. \u0150k adj\u00e1k el a gy\u00e1raknak.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83c\udfed TSMC (a gy\u00e1rt\u00f3):<\/strong> megveszik az ASML-g\u00e9peit, \u00e9s legy\u00e1rtj\u00e1k a chipeket a tervez\u0151k sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra. \u0150k a vil\u00e1g vezet\u0151 b\u00e9rgy\u00e1rt\u00f3i, olyannyira, hogy a chipgy\u00e1rt\u00e1shoz sz\u00fcks\u00e9ges osty\u00e1t \u0151k tudj\u00e1k a legjobban tel\u00edteni \u00e9s a legkisebb cs\u00edksz\u00e9less\u00e9gen is \u0151k tudnak gy\u00e1rtani.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83c\udfa8 Nvidia \u00e9s AMD (a tervez\u0151k):<\/strong> megtervezik a chipeket (GPU-kat), de nem gy\u00e1rtanak, azt a TSMC-re b\u00edzz\u00e1k.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83d\udce6 V\u00e9gfelhaszn\u00e1l\u00f3k:<\/strong> a hyperscalerek (Amazon, Google, Microsoft), akik az Nvidia-chipeket megveszik az adatk\u00f6zpontjaikba.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"572\" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/07\/TSMC-vagy-Nvidia-okoszisztema.jpg.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11900 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/572;width:1140px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/07\/TSMC-vagy-Nvidia-okoszisztema.jpg.webp 1024w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/07\/TSMC-vagy-Nvidia-okoszisztema-414x231.jpg.webp 414w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/07\/TSMC-vagy-Nvidia-okoszisztema-768x429.jpg.webp 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">forr\u00e1s: Gemini, a TSMC vagy Nvidia vit\u00e1t seg\u00edt eld\u00f6nteni a chipgy\u00e1rt\u00f3 \u00f6kosziszt\u00e9ma t\u00f6bbi neve is. Vajon kinek er\u0151sebb a versenyel\u0151nye?<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ebben a l\u00e1ncban min\u00e9l feljebb megy\u00fcnk, ann\u00e1l v\u00e9dettebb a poz\u00edci\u00f3. Az Nvidi\u00e1nak er\u0151s versenyt\u00e1rsai vannak (AMD, saj\u00e1t hyperscaler-chipek). A TSMC domin\u00e1ns, de t\u0151keig\u00e9nyes \u00e9s versenyez a Samsunggal, Intellel. Az ASML viszont a l\u00e1nc elej\u00e9n, monopolhelyzetben \u00fcl. Azt az\u00e9rt hozz\u00e1tenn\u00e9m, hogy az ASML-TSMC tandem ink\u00e1bb szimbi\u00f3zis, sem mint versenyhelyzet, egyik sem k\u00e9pes a m\u00e1sik n\u00e9lk\u00fcl m\u0171k\u00f6dni: egyik adja a g\u00e9peket, a m\u00e1sik a gy\u00e1rt\u00e1stechnol\u00f3gi\u00e1t \u00e9s a tud\u00e1st.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-wp-embed is-provider-be-gyaz-s wp-block-embed-be-gyaz-s\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"yenRSU63tO\"><a href=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/alphabet-googl-a-keresokiraly-akit-sajat-fegyvere-fenyeget\/\">Alphabet (GOOGL) r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny: AI-fogad\u00e1s \u00e9s CAPEX kock\u00e1zat<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content lazyload\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Alphabet (GOOGL) r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny: AI-fogad\u00e1s \u00e9s CAPEX kock\u00e1zat&#8221; &#8212; \" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/alphabet-googl-a-keresokiraly-akit-sajat-fegyvere-fenyeget\/embed\/#?secret=Bx8mVxCwU7#?secret=yenRSU63tO\" data-secret=\"yenRSU63tO\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" data-load-mode=\"1\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-preformatted\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\"><strong>\ud83d\udca1Vagyis az eg\u00e9sz AI-boom, f\u00fcggetlen\u00fcl att\u00f3l, hogy v\u00e9g\u00fcl melyik chiptervez\u0151 nyer, \u00e1tmegy az ASML g\u00e9pein. Ez teszi a legv\u00e9dettebb szerepl\u0151v\u00e9 az eg\u00e9sz l\u00e1ncban.<\/strong><\/mark><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\ud83d\udcccGyakorlatban:<\/strong> val\u00f3j\u00e1ban az \u00e9rt\u00e9kl\u00e1ncban van m\u00e9g egy csoport:<strong> a chipgy\u00e1rt\u00e1shoz sz\u00fcks\u00e9ges szoftvereket k\u00e9sz\u00edt\u0151 v\u00e1llalatok, mint a Synopsys vagy a Cadence. <\/strong>A mesters\u00e9ges intelligencia el\u0151ret\u00f6r\u00e9s\u00e9vel azonban ezeket egyre k\u00f6nnyebb lehet kiv\u00e1ltani, \u00e9s mivel a fizikai el\u0151\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1sban nem vesznek r\u00e9szt, ez\u00e9rt sokkal kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 v\u00e9dettek, mint a fent eml\u00edtett szegmensek szerepl\u0151i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/lightyear.com\/en-eu\/profile\/jozsef491\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"256\" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Lightyear-blue-white-1024x256.jpg.webp\" alt=\"LightYear 2. banner\" class=\"wp-image-9688 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/256;width:1140px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Lightyear-blue-white-1024x256.jpg.webp 1024w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Lightyear-blue-white-414x104.jpg.webp 414w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Lightyear-blue-white-768x192.jpg.webp 768w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Lightyear-blue-white-scaled.jpg.webp 1110w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ASML-\u00e9rt\u00e9kelts\u00e9g: mi van m\u00e1r be\u00e1razva?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">J\u00f6jj\u00f6n a hidegzuhany. Az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny egy \u00e9v alatt nagyj\u00e1b\u00f3l megdupl\u00e1z\u00f3dott (az 5 \u00e9ves grafikon szerint +150.9%, \u00e9vi 20.2%-os CAGR). Ez az al\u00e1bbiakat jelenti:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\ud83d\udcb5 R\u00e9szv\u00e9ny\u00e1rfolyam:<\/strong> ~1585 USD (az ADR), eur\u00f3ban 1430 EUR.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83d\udcc8 Trailing P\/E: ~50.5.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83d\udd2e Forward P\/E: ~28.6 <\/strong>(NTM), vagyis a piac gyors nyeres\u00e9gn\u00f6veked\u00e9st v\u00e1r, ami lefel\u00e9 h\u00fazza a j\u00f6v\u0151bemutat\u00f3 szorz\u00f3t.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83c\udfaf FCF-hozam: 1.81%<\/strong>, a bemutatott \u00e9vtized legalacsonyabbja.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"726\" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/07\/ASML_Holding_N_V_ASML-1024x726.jpg.webp\" alt=\"az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny \u00e9rt\u00e9kelts\u00e9ge NOPAT yield \u00e9s FCF yield alapj\u00e1n\" class=\"wp-image-11990 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/726;width:1140px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/07\/ASML_Holding_N_V_ASML-1024x726.jpg.webp 1024w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/07\/ASML_Holding_N_V_ASML-414x293.jpg.webp 414w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/07\/ASML_Holding_N_V_ASML-768x544.jpg.webp 768w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/07\/ASML_Holding_N_V_ASML-1536x1089.jpg.webp 1536w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/07\/ASML_Holding_N_V_ASML-scaled.jpg.webp 1110w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">forr\u00e1s:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/fiscal.ai\/?via=balint\">fiscal.ai<\/a>, az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny \u00e9rt\u00e9kelts\u00e9ge NOPAT yield \u00e9s FCF yield alapj\u00e1n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A legfontosabb k\u00e9rd\u00e9s nem az, hogy dr\u00e1ga-e abszol\u00fat \u00e9rtelemben az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny, hanem hogy mit kell elhinni ahhoz, hogy a mai \u00e1r ut\u00f3lag olcs\u00f3nak bizonyuljon. Nagyj\u00e1b\u00f3l ezeknek kellene teljes\u00fclni\u00fck:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\ud83d\ude80 A High-NA EUV sikeres, t\u00f6meges bevezet\u00e9se:<\/strong> az \u201eEXE&#8221; (High-NA) egys\u00e9gekb\u0151l 2024-ben 2, 2025-ben 4 darabot adtak el. Ez ma m\u00e9g minim\u00e1lis, a bika t\u00e9zis szerint ennek kell felfutnia.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83d\udcca Az AI-beruh\u00e1z\u00e1si ciklus \u00e9vekig kitart:<\/strong> a hyperscalerek nem lass\u00edtj\u00e1k a chip-v\u00e1s\u00e1rl\u00e1sokat (viszont szinte mindenki h\u00e1zon bel\u00fcl fog tervezni).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83c\udf0f A k\u00ednai kock\u00e1zat stabiliz\u00e1l\u00f3dik:<\/strong> az exportkorl\u00e1toz\u00e1sok nem szigorodnak tov\u00e1bb \u00e9s az SMIC sem \u00e1ll el\u0151 hasonl\u00f3 technol\u00f3gi\u00e1val.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-wp-embed is-provider-be-gyaz-s wp-block-embed-be-gyaz-s\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"27kpa8V0Kl\"><a href=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/reszvenyek-ertekeltsege\/\">R\u00e9szv\u00e9nyek \u00e9rt\u00e9kelts\u00e9ge 2025: \u00fatmutat\u00f3 kezd\u0151knek<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content lazyload\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;R\u00e9szv\u00e9nyek \u00e9rt\u00e9kelts\u00e9ge 2025: \u00fatmutat\u00f3 kezd\u0151knek&#8221; &#8212; \" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/reszvenyek-ertekeltsege\/embed\/#?secret=U1GfmsT2p4#?secret=27kpa8V0Kl\" data-secret=\"27kpa8V0Kl\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" data-load-mode=\"1\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-preformatted\"><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">\ud83e\udd14Vagyis a mai \u00e1raz\u00e1s azt felt\u00e9telezi, hogy az AI-capex ciklus zavartalanul tart, a High-NA id\u0151ben be\u00e9rik, \u00e9s a k\u00ednai helyzet nem romlik tov\u00e1bb. Egyik sem irre\u00e1lis, de mindh\u00e1rom egyszerre a \u201eminden flottul megy\" forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv, \u00e9s pont ez van be\u00e1razva jelenleg az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny\u00e9be.<\/mark><\/strong><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ibkr.com\/referral\/balintzsolt366\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"256\" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/IBKR-banner-bonusz-200-usd-1024x256.jpg.webp\" alt=\"IBKR 2. banner\" class=\"wp-image-9668 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/256;width:1140px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/IBKR-banner-bonusz-200-usd-1024x256.jpg.webp 1024w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/IBKR-banner-bonusz-200-usd-414x104.jpg.webp 414w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/IBKR-banner-bonusz-200-usd-768x192.jpg.webp 768w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/IBKR-banner-bonusz-200-usd-scaled.jpg.webp 1110w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny: medve\/alap\/bika t\u00e9zisek<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vegy\u00fcnk h\u00e1rom forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvet az ASML eset\u00e9ben. A sz\u00e1mok k\u00f6zel\u00edt\u0151 becsl\u00e9sek, a l\u00e9nyeg a logika:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv<\/th><th>Feltev\u00e9s<\/th><th>Mi t\u00f6rt\u00e9nik az \u00e1rral<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>\ud83d\udc3b Bear<\/strong><\/td><td>Az AI-capex lassul, a k\u00ednai korl\u00e1toz\u00e1s szigorodik, a High-NA cs\u00faszik. A ciklikuss\u00e1g vissza\u00fct.<\/td><td>Az 50.5-\u00f6s P\/E \u00f6sszenyom\u00f3dik; az \u00e1r \u00e9rdemi, ak\u00e1r 30-40%-os es\u00e9st is elszenvedhet.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>\ud83d\ude10 Alap<\/strong><\/td><td>A n\u00f6veked\u00e9s folytat\u00f3dik, de lassul a mostani extr\u00e9m \u00fctemr\u0151l; a k\u00ednai helyzet stabiliz\u00e1l\u00f3dik.<\/td><td>Az \u00e1r nagyj\u00e1b\u00f3l egy\u00fctt mozog a nyeres\u00e9gn\u00f6veked\u00e9ssel, a multiplik\u00e1tor lassan normaliz\u00e1l\u00f3dik.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>\ud83d\udc02 Bull<\/strong><\/td><td>A High-NA gyorsabban terjed a v\u00e1rtn\u00e1l, az AI-boom kitart, az \u00e1rbev\u00e9tel 2028-ra az 50+ milli\u00e1rd EUR-s tartom\u00e1nyba fut.<\/td><td>A r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny \u00faj cs\u00facsokra megy, a legmagasabb elemz\u0151i c\u00e9lok teljes\u00fclnek.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\ud83d\udcccGyakorlatban:<\/strong> a magam r\u00e9sz\u00e9r\u0151l az ilyen c\u00e9gekn\u00e9l nem a bika forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvre f\u00f3kusz\u00e1lok, hanem arra, mekkor\u00e1t eshetek a medv\u00e9ben. Egy 50.5-\u00f6s P\/E \u00e9s 1.81%-os FCF-hozam azt jelenti, hogy egy csal\u00f3d\u00e1st kelt\u0151 negyed\u00e9v vagy egy k\u00ednai szigor\u00edt\u00e1s nagyon f\u00e1jhat, mert alig van biztons\u00e1gi r\u00e1hagy\u00e1s. Tegy\u00fck fel, hogy visszat\u00e9r a b\u0151 egy \u00e9vvel ezel\u0151tti 600 EUR-s szintre az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny \u00e1rfolyama, akkor az -60%-os es\u00e9snek felelne meg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/wise.com\/invite\/ihpc\/balintzsoltk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"256\" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Wise-banner-hatter-v3-1024x256.jpg.webp\" alt=\"Wise 2. banner\" class=\"wp-image-9669 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/256;width:1140px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Wise-banner-hatter-v3-1024x256.jpg.webp 1024w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Wise-banner-hatter-v3-414x104.jpg.webp 414w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Wise-banner-hatter-v3-768x192.jpg.webp 768w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Wise-banner-hatter-v3-scaled.jpg.webp 1110w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ASML vs Nvidia: jobb AI-r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny vagy m\u00e1s kock\u00e1zati profil?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Szempont<\/th><th>ASML<\/th><th>Nvidia<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Poz\u00edci\u00f3 a l\u00e1ncban<\/td><td>\ud83d\udee0\ufe0f Szersz\u00e1mk\u00e9sz\u00edt\u0151 (g\u00e9p)<\/td><td>\ud83c\udfa8 Chiptervez\u0151 (GPU)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Verseny<\/td><td>Gyakorlatilag nincs (EUV-monop\u00f3lium)<\/td><td>Van (AMD, saj\u00e1t hyperscaler-chipek)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F\u0151 kock\u00e1zat<\/td><td>Ciklikuss\u00e1g, K\u00edna<\/td><td>Verseny, kommoditiz\u00e1ci\u00f3, koncentr\u00e1ci\u00f3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bev\u00e9tel jellege<\/td><td>G\u00e9pelad\u00e1s + ism\u00e9tl\u0151d\u0151 szerviz<\/td><td>Chipelad\u00e1s, gyorsan v\u00e1ltoz\u00f3 ciklusok<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u201eKi nyer&#8221; k\u00e9rd\u00e9s<\/td><td>Mindegy, ki nyer, mind ASML-g\u00e9pet vesz<\/td><td>Az Nvidi\u00e1nak meg kell v\u00e9denie a vezet\u0151 hely\u00e9t<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A l\u00e9nyegi k\u00fcl\u00f6nbs\u00e9g: <strong>az ASML akkor is nyer, ha nem tudja, melyik chiptervez\u0151 gy\u0151z, mert mindenki az \u0151 g\u00e9p\u00e9n gy\u00e1rtatja a chipeket, f\u0151leg a TSMC-vel.<\/strong> Az Nvidia ezzel szemben a CUDA \u00f6kosziszt\u00e9m\u00e1val jelenleg vezeti a versenyt, de ezt meg is kell v\u00e9denie. Mivel egyre t\u00f6bb hyperscaler c\u00e9g tervezi h\u00e1zon bel\u00fclre vinni a tervez\u00e9st &#8211; Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft stb. -, ez\u00e9rt egy\u00e1ltal\u00e1n nem biztos, hogy a j\u00f6v\u0151ben is \u00edgy fogynak majd az Nvidia eszk\u00f6zei. <strong>Ez\u00e9rt az ASML \u201ebiztosabb&#8221; fogad\u00e1s az AI-t\u00e9m\u00e1ra, de cser\u00e9be ciklikusabb \u00e9s lassabban is n\u0151, mint az Nvidia cs\u00facs\u00e9veiben.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-wp-embed is-provider-be-gyaz-s wp-block-embed-be-gyaz-s\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"zmmftU8Bji\"><a href=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/nvidia-nvda-az-ai-korszak-motorja-vagy-tulfujt-lufi\/\">Nvidia (NVDA) r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny 2026: AI-motor vagy lufi<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content lazyload\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Nvidia (NVDA) r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny 2026: AI-motor vagy lufi&#8221; &#8212; \" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/nvidia-nvda-az-ai-korszak-motorja-vagy-tulfujt-lufi\/embed\/#?secret=9QSu2IPpG3#?secret=zmmftU8Bji\" data-secret=\"zmmftU8Bji\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" data-load-mode=\"1\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-preformatted\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\"><strong>\ud83d\udca1Nem az a k\u00e9rd\u00e9s, melyik a \u201ejobb\", hanem hogy mit akarsz a befektet\u00e9seddel el\u00e9rni: az ASML a v\u00e9dettebb, monopol-jelleg\u0171 AI-kitetts\u00e9g, az Nvidia a nagyobb n\u00f6veked\u00e9s nagyobb versennyel \u00e9s koncentr\u00e1ci\u00f3s kock\u00e1zattal.<\/strong><\/mark><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/lightyear.com\/en-eu\/profile\/jozsef491\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"256\" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Lightyear-blue-white-1024x256.jpg.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9688 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/256;width:1140px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Lightyear-blue-white-1024x256.jpg.webp 1024w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Lightyear-blue-white-414x104.jpg.webp 414w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Lightyear-blue-white-768x192.jpg.webp 768w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Lightyear-blue-white-scaled.jpg.webp 1110w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ASML vs TSMC: berendez\u00e9s-monop\u00f3lium vs gy\u00e1rt\u00e1si m\u00e9ret<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A TSMC az ASML legnagyobb \u00fcgyfele, \u00e9s a k\u00e9t c\u00e9g szimbi\u00f3zisban \u00e9l, de befektet\u00e9sk\u00e9nt jelent\u0151sen elt\u00e9rnek. A sz\u00e1mokat USD-re v\u00e1ltottam \u00e1t, az egyszer\u0171bb \u00e9rthet\u0151s\u00e9g v\u00e9gett:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Mutat\u00f3<\/th><th>ASML<\/th><th>TSMC<\/th><th>Melyik jobb\/olcs\u00f3bb<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Trailing P\/E<\/td><td>~52<\/td><td>~30<\/td><td>\ud83d\udfe2 TSMC (j\u00f3val olcs\u00f3bb)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Forward P\/E<\/td><td>~29.5<\/td><td>~19<\/td><td>\ud83d\udfe2 TSMC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EV\/EBITDA<\/td><td>~40.6<\/td><td>~20.1<\/td><td>\ud83d\udfe2 TSMC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FCF-hozam<\/td><td>1.81%<\/td><td>1.72%<\/td><td>\ud83d\udfe0 nagyj\u00e1b\u00f3l egyenl\u0151<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ROIC<\/td><td>37.8%<\/td><td>42.0%<\/td><td>\ud83d\udfe2 TSMC (magasabb!)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Brutt\u00f3 marzs<\/td><td>52.7%<\/td><td>64.2%<\/td><td>\ud83d\udfe2 TSMC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capex \/ bev\u00e9tel<\/td><td>~5%<\/td><td>~33-34%<\/td><td>\ud83d\udfe2 ASML (sokkal t\u0151kek\u00f6nnyebb)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>K\u00edna-ar\u00e1ny<\/td><td>~30-36%<\/td><td>~9-11%<\/td><td>\ud83d\udfe2 TSMC (kisebb K\u00edna-kitetts\u00e9g)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F\u0151 geopolitikai kock\u00e1zat<\/td><td>K\u00edna-export<\/td><td>Tajvan-koncentr\u00e1ci\u00f3<\/td><td>\ud83d\udd34TSMC nagyobb politikai kock\u00e1zat<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A t\u00e1bla t\u00f6bb meglepet\u00e9st is rejt. <strong>Az egyik: a TSMC minden \u00e9rt\u00e9kelts\u00e9gi mutat\u00f3n nagyj\u00e1b\u00f3l fele olyan dr\u00e1ga, mint az ASML, kiv\u00e9ve az FCF hozam eset\u00e9ben.<\/strong> Az ASML monopol helyzet\u00e9b\u0151l fakad\u00f3 pr\u00e9miuma sz\u00e1mszer\u0171en kimutathat\u00f3. <strong>A m\u00e1sik: a TSMC ROIC-ja (42%) \u00e9s brutt\u00f3 marzsa (64%) m\u00e9g az ASML kiv\u00e1l\u00f3 sz\u00e1mait is fel\u00fclm\u00falja, annak ellen\u00e9re, hogy j\u00f3val t\u0151keig\u00e9nyesebb.<\/strong> A k\u00fcl\u00f6nbs\u00e9g l\u00e9nyege a capex-sorban van: az ASML g\u00e9peket gy\u00e1rt (t\u0151kek\u00f6nny\u0171, 5% capex), a TSMC fizikai gy\u00e1rakat \u00e9p\u00edt (t\u0151keneh\u00e9z, 33-34% capex).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\ud83d\udcccGyakorlatban:<\/strong> ez a t\u00e1bla \u00f6nmag\u00e1ban is elgondolkodtat\u00f3. Ha valaki tiszta AI-capex-kitetts\u00e9get akar, a TSMC ma sz\u00e1mszer\u0171en olcs\u00f3bban k\u00edn\u00e1l kitetts\u00e9get a szektorban, mint az ASML, nem v\u00e9letlen\u00fcl van benne \u00e9vek \u00f3ta kitetts\u00e9gem. Viszont az ASML-t is sz\u00edvesen a portf\u00f3li\u00f3mban tudn\u00e1m, mert mindk\u00e9t v\u00e1llalatot egy \u00f6ner\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 moattal rendelkez\u0151 v\u00e1llalatnak tartom, ahol a folyamatos kutat\u00e1s-fejleszt\u00e9s egyre ink\u00e1bb meger\u0151s\u00edti a versenyel\u0151nyt. <br><br>Viszont, mi t\u00f6rt\u00e9nik akkor, ha az EUV technika helyett kitlal\u00e1lnak egy m\u00e1sik hasonl\u00f3an hat\u00e9kony megold\u00e1st? Akkor is a TSMC fogja legy\u00e1rtani a chipeket, csak akkor m\u00e1r nem biztos, hogy az ASML g\u00e9peivel. Ehhez persze az is kell, hogy K\u00edna ne rohanja le Tajvant, de akkor az eg\u00e9sz vil\u00e1gban \u00f3ri\u00e1si bajok lesznek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ibkr.com\/referral\/balintzsolt366\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"256\" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/IBKR-banner-bonusz-200-usd-1024x256.jpg.webp\" alt=\"IBKR 2. banner\" class=\"wp-image-9668 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/256;width:1140px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/IBKR-banner-bonusz-200-usd-1024x256.jpg.webp 1024w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/IBKR-banner-bonusz-200-usd-414x104.jpg.webp 414w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/IBKR-banner-bonusz-200-usd-768x192.jpg.webp 768w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/IBKR-banner-bonusz-200-usd-scaled.jpg.webp 1110w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">F\u0151 kock\u00e1zatok: k\u00ednai korl\u00e1toz\u00e1sok, ciklikuss\u00e1g, High-NA EUV \u00e9s \u00e9rt\u00e9kelts\u00e9g<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\ud83c\udf0f K\u00ednai korl\u00e1toz\u00e1sok:<\/strong> a K\u00edna-bev\u00e9tel 2024-ben tet\u0151z\u00f6tt 10.2 milli\u00e1rd EUR-n (a bev\u00e9tel ~36%-a!), 2025-ben m\u00e1r 9.5 milli\u00e1rd EUR-ra cs\u00f6kkent. Az EUV-g\u00e9pek exportja K\u00edn\u00e1ba gyakorlatilag tiltott \u00e9s a DUV-g\u00e9pek\u00e9 is korl\u00e1tozott. A 2024-es \u201eel\u0151re-v\u00e1s\u00e1rl\u00e1s&#8221; felp\u00f6rgette a sz\u00e1mokat, a lecseng\u00e9se viszont mechanikusan lass\u00edtja a n\u00f6veked\u00e9st.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83d\udd04 Ciklikuss\u00e1g:<\/strong> a Net System Sales 2024-ben t\u00e9nylegesen cs\u00f6kkent (-0.77%), miel\u0151tt 2025-ben visszapattant volna. Egyetlen \u00e9vi visszaes\u00e9s a sorban is eml\u00e9kezteti a befektet\u0151kat arra, hogy ez egy ciklikus ipar\u00e1g, az AI-boom most felfel\u00e9 h\u00fazza, de a g\u00e9pelad\u00e1sok hull\u00e1mznak.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83d\udd2c High-NA EUV v\u00e9grehajt\u00e1si kock\u00e1zat:<\/strong> a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 gener\u00e1ci\u00f3s g\u00e9p a n\u00f6veked\u00e9s motorja lehet, de lassan \u00e9rik be. 2025-ben mind\u00f6ssze 4 High-NA (EXE) egys\u00e9get adtak el. 2026 j\u00falius\u00e1ban el\u00e9rt egy fontos m\u00e9rf\u00f6ldk\u00f6vet a v\u00e1llalat az Inteln\u00e9l, aki az els\u0151k k\u00f6z\u00f6tt v\u00e1s\u00e1rolt az \u00faj gener\u00e1ci\u00f3b\u00f3l, de a TSMC \u00f3vatosabban vezeti be az ASML leg\u00fajabb g\u00e9peit. Ha cs\u00faszik a High-NA g\u00e9pek bevezet\u00e9se, a bika t\u00e9zis gyeng\u00fcl.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83d\udcca \u00c9rt\u00e9kelts\u00e9g:<\/strong> a legfontosabb r\u00f6vid t\u00e1v\u00fa kock\u00e1zat. 52-es trailing P\/E-n\u00e9l \u00e9s \u00e9vtizedes m\u00e9lyponti FCF-hozamn\u00e1l alig van r\u00e1hagy\u00e1s; egy csal\u00f3d\u00e1s vagy egy szektorrot\u00e1ci\u00f3 gyorsan korrig\u00e1lhat.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\ud83d\udcccGyakorlatban:<\/strong> a legink\u00e1bb al\u00e1becs\u00fclt kock\u00e1zat szerintem a ciklikuss\u00e1g. Az AI-euf\u00f3ri\u00e1ban mindenki elfelejti, hogy a f\u00e9lvezet\u0151-berendez\u00e9sek szegmense hull\u00e1mz\u00f3 ipar\u00e1g, \u00e9s m\u00e9g 2024-ben is volt egy visszaes\u00e9st mutat\u00f3 \u00e9v. <strong>A verseny sem teljesen halott: a Canon, a Nikon \u00e9s k\u00ednai \u00e1llami projektek is dolgoznak k\u00fcl\u00f6nb\u00f6z\u0151 technol\u00f3giai v\u00edvm\u00e1nyokon, \u00e9s b\u00e1r ma m\u00e9g nincs es\u00e9ly\u00fck az EUV szegmensben, de egy 2028-30-as \u00e1tt\u00f6r\u00e9s elm\u00e9letben erod\u00e1lhatn\u00e1 az ASML monopol helyzet\u00e9t, f\u0151leg K\u00edn\u00e1ban.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/wise.com\/invite\/ihpc\/balintzsoltk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"256\" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Wise-banner-hatter-v3-1024x256.jpg.webp\" alt=\"Wise 2. banner\" class=\"wp-image-9669 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/256;width:1140px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Wise-banner-hatter-v3-1024x256.jpg.webp 1024w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Wise-banner-hatter-v3-414x104.jpg.webp 414w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Wise-banner-hatter-v3-768x192.jpg.webp 768w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Wise-banner-hatter-v3-scaled.jpg.webp 1110w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Portf\u00f3li\u00f3hat\u00e1s: hoz-e diverzifik\u00e1ci\u00f3t az ASML?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\ud83d\udd17 Rejtett koncentr\u00e1ci\u00f3:<\/strong> ha m\u00e1r tartasz Nvidi\u00e1t, TSMC-t vagy AI-adatk\u00f6zponti neveket, az ASML hozz\u00e1ad\u00e1sa nem h\u00edg\u00edtja, hanem s\u0171r\u00edti az AI-capex-kitetts\u00e9get. Mindegyik ugyanarra a beruh\u00e1z\u00e1si ciklusra fogad. Egy AI-capex-lassul\u00e1s mindet egyszerre \u00fctn\u00e9 meg.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83d\udee1\ufe0f De m\u00e1s a l\u00e1nc-poz\u00edci\u00f3:<\/strong> az ASML a l\u00e1nc elej\u00e9n, monopolhelyzetben \u00fcl, ami valamelyest m\u00e1s kock\u00e1zati profilt ad, mint a chiptervez\u0151k eset\u00e9ben. Nem v\u00e9d meg egy szektor-lejtmenett\u0151l, de az egyik legv\u00e9dettebb szerepl\u0151 a l\u00e1ncon bel\u00fcl.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-preformatted\"><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">\ud83d\udca1A l\u00e9nyeg: az ASML remek min\u0151s\u00e9g\u0171 AI-kitetts\u00e9g, de nem diverzifik\u00e1ci\u00f3, ha m\u00e1r van chip-r\u00e9szv\u00e9nyed. Ink\u00e1bb a legjobb min\u0151s\u00e9g\u0171 koncentr\u00e1ci\u00f3 ugyanabban a t\u00e9m\u00e1ban.<\/mark><\/strong><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/lightyear.com\/en-eu\/profile\/jozsef491\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"256\" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Lightyear-blue-white-1024x256.jpg.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9688 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/256;width:1140px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Lightyear-blue-white-1024x256.jpg.webp 1024w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Lightyear-blue-white-414x104.jpg.webp 414w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Lightyear-blue-white-768x192.jpg.webp 768w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Lightyear-blue-white-scaled.jpg.webp 1110w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83d\udccc A gyakorlatban: f\u00e9lvezet\u0151-kitetts\u00e9g ellen\u0151rz\u00e9se az iO Charts seg\u00edts\u00e9g\u00e9vel<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az ASML \u00e9s a teljes f\u00e9lvezet\u0151-l\u00e1nc az iO Charts-on k\u00f6zvetlen\u00fcl elemezhet\u0151 \u00e9s \u00f6sszehasonl\u00edthat\u00f3:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\ud83d\udd0e ASML, TSMC, Nvidia, AMD egym\u00e1s mellett:<\/strong> tegy\u00e9tek egym\u00e1s mell\u00e9 a c\u00e9gek n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9t, a marzsokat, a ROIC-ot \u00e9s az \u00e9rt\u00e9kelts\u00e9get, ahogy fentebb az ASML-TSMC t\u00e1bl\u00e1ban, ott azonnal l\u00e1tszott, hogy a TSMC olcs\u00f3bb.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83d\udcca Historikus \u00e9rt\u00e9kelts\u00e9g:<\/strong> a legfontosabb, hogy az ASML-t a saj\u00e1t m\u00faltj\u00e1hoz m\u00e9rj\u00e9tek, a NOPAT\/EV most 1.87%, a s\u00e1v alj\u00e1n (a legalacsonyabb az elm\u00falt 5 \u00e9vben, vagyis dr\u00e1ga).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83e\uddee Vigy\u00e1zzatok a dupl\u00e1z\u00e1sra:<\/strong> ha m\u00e1r van AI-adatk\u00f6zponti kitetts\u00e9getek, n\u00e9zz\u00e9tek meg, mennyire mozognak egy\u00fctt ezek a nevek (mi a korrel\u00e1ci\u00f3).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\ud83d\udccb Figyel\u0151lista:<\/strong> vegy\u00e9tek fel az ASML-t, \u00e9s v\u00e1rjatok egy jobb bel\u00e9p\u0151re, egy ciklikus visszaes\u00e9s sokkal jobb \u00e1ron k\u00edn\u00e1lhatja ugyanezt a kiv\u00e1l\u00f3 c\u00e9get.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"506\" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/07\/ASML-arfolyam-io-charts-1024x506.png.webp\" alt=\"az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny \u00e1rfolyammozg\u00e1sa\" class=\"wp-image-11996 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/506;width:1137px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/07\/ASML-arfolyam-io-charts-1024x506.png.webp 1024w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/07\/ASML-arfolyam-io-charts-414x204.png.webp 414w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/07\/ASML-arfolyam-io-charts-768x379.png.webp 768w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/07\/ASML-arfolyam-io-charts.png.webp 1110w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">forr\u00e1s: <a class=\"nturl\" href=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/stocks\/ASML\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">iO Charts<\/a>, az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny \u00e1rfolyammozg\u00e1sa<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-preformatted\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\"><strong>\u261d\ufe0f\u00cdgy az \u201eASML-kitetts\u00e9g\" a gyakorlatban a teljes f\u00e9lvezet\u0151-l\u00e1nc t\u00e1rgyilagos, adatalap\u00fa elemz\u00e9s\u00e9t jelenti, nem a hype ment\u00e9n, hanem a fundamentumok alapj\u00e1n.<\/strong><\/mark><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ibkr.com\/referral\/balintzsolt366\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"256\" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/IBKR-banner-bonusz-200-usd-1024x256.jpg.webp\" alt=\"IBKR 2. banner\" class=\"wp-image-9668 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/256;width:1140px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/IBKR-banner-bonusz-200-usd-1024x256.jpg.webp 1024w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/IBKR-banner-bonusz-200-usd-414x104.jpg.webp 414w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/IBKR-banner-bonusz-200-usd-768x192.jpg.webp 768w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/IBKR-banner-bonusz-200-usd-scaled.jpg.webp 1110w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny: a v\u00e9gs\u0151 verdikt<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">J\u00f3 befektet\u00e9s az ASML az AI-roham ut\u00e1n? <strong>A c\u00e9g k\u00e9ts\u00e9gtelen\u00fcl a vil\u00e1g egyik legjobb min\u0151s\u00e9g\u0171 v\u00e1llalata: EUV-monop\u00f3lium, m\u00e9ly moat, 37.8%-os ROIC, t\u0151kek\u00f6nny\u0171 modell, a teljes AI-boom \u00e1tmegy a g\u00e9pein.<\/strong> De a r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny egy \u00e9v alatt nagyj\u00e1b\u00f3l megdupl\u00e1z\u00f3dott, \u00e9s a mai ~50.5-\u00f6s trailing P\/E, 1.81%-os \u00e9vtizedes m\u00e9lyponti FCF-hozam azt felt\u00e9telezi, hogy minden a hely\u00e9re ker\u00fcl: ha a High-NA technol\u00f3gia id\u0151ben be\u00e9rik, ha az AI beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok folytat\u00f3dnak, \u00e9s ha a k\u00ednai helyzet nem romlik tov\u00e1bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-preformatted\"><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">\ud83d\udca1A min\u0151s\u00e9g nem k\u00e9rd\u00e9s, az \u00e1r igen. Az ASML az a fajta c\u00e9g, amit szeretn\u00e9k birtokolni, de nem az AI-hype cs\u00facs\u00e1n, hanem egy ciklikus visszaes\u00e9sben, amikor a kiv\u00e1l\u00f3 \u00fczletet v\u00e9gre tisztess\u00e9ges \u00e1ron adj\u00e1k. \u00c9s ha valaki ugyanezt a t\u00e9m\u00e1t olcs\u00f3bban akarja: a TSMC ma nagyj\u00e1b\u00f3l feleannyiba ker\u00fcl.<\/mark><\/strong><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A saj\u00e1t \u00e9rt\u00e9kalap\u00fa, hossz\u00fa t\u00e1v\u00fa szeml\u00e9letemmel az ASML t\u00f6k\u00e9letes figyel\u0151list\u00e1s r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny: <strong>nem az a k\u00e9rd\u00e9s, hogy j\u00f3 c\u00e9g-e (az), hanem hogy a mai \u00e1r ad-e el\u00e9g biztons\u00e1gi r\u00e1hagy\u00e1st (nem igaz\u00e1n).<\/strong> Egy t\u00fcrelmes befektet\u0151nek a f\u00e9lvezet\u0151-ipar\u00e1g ciklikuss\u00e1ga el\u0151bb-ut\u00f3bb jobb bel\u00e9p\u0151t k\u00edn\u00e1l, addig marad a t\u00e1rgyilagos elemz\u00e9s, h\u0171v\u00f6s fejjel, a fundamentumok alapj\u00e1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-preformatted\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">\ud83e\ude90<strong>Ha pedig tov\u00e1bb akartok elemezni, haszn\u00e1lj\u00e1tok az iO Charts r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny- \u00e9s portf\u00f3li\u00f3 kezel\u0151j\u00e9t, amit itt \u00e9rtek el: <a class=\"nturl\" href=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">iO Charts<\/a>.<\/strong><\/mark><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/wise.com\/invite\/ihpc\/balintzsoltk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"256\" data-src=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Wise-banner-hatter-v3-1024x256.jpg.webp\" alt=\"Wise 2. banner\" class=\"wp-image-9669 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/256;width:1140px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Wise-banner-hatter-v3-1024x256.jpg.webp 1024w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Wise-banner-hatter-v3-414x104.jpg.webp 414w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Wise-banner-hatter-v3-768x192.jpg.webp 768w, https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/wp-content\/smush-webp\/2026\/02\/Wise-banner-hatter-v3-scaled.jpg.webp 1110w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<!-- ============================================================\n     GY\u00cdK ACCORDION - iO Charts (ASML cikk)\n     ============================================================ -->\n<style>\n.io-faq {\n  --faq-navy:      #1b3a5f;\n  --faq-accent:    #e2662c;\n  --faq-text:      #333333;\n  --faq-line:      #dfe5ec;\n  --faq-hover:     #eef4fa;\n  --faq-bg:        #f4f8fc;\n\n  background: var(--faq-bg);\n  padding: 2em 2em 1.5em 2em;\n  border-radius: 10px;\n  max-width: 100%;\n  margin: 2.5em 0;\n}\n\n.io-faq__title {\n  text-align: center;\n  color: var(--faq-navy);\n  margin: 0 0 1.5em 0;\n}\n\n.io-faq__subtitle {\n  display: flex;\n  align-items: center;\n  gap: 1.1em;\n  color: var(--faq-accent);\n  margin: 0 0 1.8em 0;\n  font-size: .95em;\n  white-space: nowrap;\n}\n\n.io-faq__subtitle::before,\n.io-faq__subtitle::after {\n  content: \"\";\n  flex: 1;\n  height: 1px;\n  opacity: .45;\n}\n\n.io-faq__subtitle::before {\n  background: linear-gradient(to right, transparent, var(--faq-accent));\n}\n\n.io-faq__subtitle::after {\n  background: linear-gradient(to left, transparent, var(--faq-accent));\n}\n\n.io-faq__intro {\n  text-align: left;\n  color: var(--faq-text);\n  line-height: 1.7;\n  margin: 0 0 2em 0;\n}\n\n.io-faq__intro p { margin: 0 0 .9em 0; 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font-size: .85em; }\n}\n<\/style>\n\n<div class=\"io-faq\">\n  <h2 class=\"io-faq__title\">Gyakran Ism\u00e9telt K\u00e9rd\u00e9sek az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9nyr\u0151l<\/h2>\n  <p class=\"io-faq__subtitle\">V\u00e1laszok a leggyakoribb k\u00e9rd\u00e9sekre<\/p>\n  <div class=\"io-faq__intro\">\n    <p>Az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9nyt venn\u00e9d, vagy csak tiszt\u00e1n akarsz l\u00e1tni a helyzetben? Itt t\u00f6m\u00f6r v\u00e1laszokat tal\u00e1lsz a legt\u00f6bbet k\u00e9rdezett t\u00e9m\u00e1kra: hogy j\u00f3 befektet\u00e9s-e most, mi\u00e9rt kulcsszerepl\u0151 az AI-chipek gy\u00e1rt\u00e1s\u00e1ban, val\u00f3ban monop\u00f3liuma van-e, t\u00fal\u00e9rt\u00e9kelt-e az AI-rali ut\u00e1n, \u00e9s hogyan viszonyul az Nvidi\u00e1hoz, illetve a TSMC-hez.<\/p>\n    <p>Kattints b\u00e1rmelyik k\u00e9rd\u00e9sre, \u00e9s kiny\u00edlik a v\u00e1lasz. Ezek sz\u00e1nd\u00e9kosan r\u00f6vid \u00f6sszefoglal\u00f3k: ha a r\u00e9szletek is \u00e9rdekelnek, azokat feljebb, a cikk megfelel\u0151 fejezeteiben bontom ki b\u0151vebben. Fontos: az ASML \u00e9s a f\u00e9lvezet\u0151-piac helyzete gyorsan v\u00e1ltozik, az adatok a cikk \u00edr\u00e1s\u00e1nak id\u0151pontj\u00e1t t\u00fckr\u00f6zik.<\/p>\n  <\/div>\n  <details class=\"io-faq__item\">\n    <summary class=\"io-faq__q\"><h3>J\u00f3 befektet\u00e9s most az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny?<\/h3><\/summary>\n    <div class=\"io-faq__a\">\n      <p>Az ASML kiv\u00e1l\u00f3 min\u0151s\u00e9g\u0171 v\u00e1llalat EUV-monop\u00f3liummal (37.8%-os ROIC, 52.7%-os brutt\u00f3 marzs), de 2026 k\u00f6zep\u00e9n a r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny az AI-rali ut\u00e1n t\u00f6rt\u00e9nelmi cs\u00facsokon, ~50.5-\u00f6s trailing P\/E-n forog, \u00e9s az FCF-hozama a bemutatott \u00e9vtized legalacsonyabbja. A min\u0151s\u00e9g nem k\u00e9rd\u00e9s, az \u00e1raz\u00e1s viszont alig hagy biztons\u00e1gi r\u00e1hagy\u00e1st \u2013 egy t\u00fcrelmes befektet\u0151nek egy ciklikus visszaes\u00e9s jobb bel\u00e9p\u0151t k\u00edn\u00e1lhat.<\/p>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/details>\n  <details class=\"io-faq__item\">\n    <summary class=\"io-faq__q\"><h3>Mi\u00e9rt fontos az ASML az AI-chipek szempontj\u00e1b\u00f3l?<\/h3><\/summary>\n    <div class=\"io-faq__a\">\n      <p>Minden fejlett AI-chip (Nvidia, AMD, HBM-mem\u00f3ri\u00e1k) EUV-litogr\u00e1fi\u00e1val k\u00e9sz\u00fcl, \u00e9s a vil\u00e1gon egyetlen c\u00e9g gy\u00e1rt EUV-g\u00e9peket sorozatban: az ASML. A TSMC, a Samsung \u00e9s az Intel mind t\u0151le v\u00e1s\u00e1rol, \u00edgy az eg\u00e9sz AI-boom fizikailag \u00e1tmegy az ASML g\u00e9pein.<\/p>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/details>\n  <details class=\"io-faq__item\">\n    <summary class=\"io-faq__q\"><h3>T\u00e9nyleg monop\u00f3liuma van az ASML-nek?<\/h3><\/summary>\n    <div class=\"io-faq__a\">\n      <p>Az EUV-litogr\u00e1fi\u00e1ban l\u00e9nyeg\u00e9ben igen: az ASML piaci r\u00e9szesed\u00e9se itt gyakorlatilag 100%, \u00e9s az eg\u00e9sz ipar\u00e1g \u00e9vente \u00f6sszesen csak 44-48 EUV-g\u00e9pet v\u00e1s\u00e1rol t\u0151le. A hagyom\u00e1nyosabb (DUV) g\u00e9pekn\u00e9l van n\u00e9mi verseny (Canon, Nikon), de a legfejlettebb, AI-hoz sz\u00fcks\u00e9ges cs\u00edksz\u00e9less\u00e9gekn\u00e9l nincs alternat\u00edva. A monop\u00f3liumot \u00e9vtizedes fejleszt\u00e9s \u00e9s egyed\u00fcl\u00e1ll\u00f3 besz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00f3i \u00f6kosziszt\u00e9ma v\u00e9di.<\/p>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/details>\n  <details class=\"io-faq__item\">\n    <summary class=\"io-faq__q\"><h3>T\u00fal\u00e9rt\u00e9kelt az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny az AI-rali ut\u00e1n?<\/h3><\/summary>\n    <div class=\"io-faq__a\">\n      <p>A r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny egy \u00e9v alatt nagyj\u00e1b\u00f3l megdupl\u00e1z\u00f3dott, \u00e9s ~52-es trailing P\/E-n forog, mik\u00f6zben az FCF-hozama (1.81%) a bemutatott \u00e9vtized legalacsonyabbja \u2013 vagyis a saj\u00e1t t\u00f6rt\u00e9nelm\u00e9hez k\u00e9pest a legdr\u00e1g\u00e1bb v\u00e9g\u00e9n j\u00e1r. Nem felt\u00e9tlen\u00fcl \u201elufi&#8221;, de a mai \u00e1r a t\u00f6k\u00e9leteshez k\u00f6zeli v\u00e9grehajt\u00e1st \u00e1razza, kev\u00e9s biztons\u00e1gi r\u00e1hagy\u00e1ssal.<\/p>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/details>\n  <details class=\"io-faq__item\">\n    <summary class=\"io-faq__q\"><h3>Jobb az ASML, mint az Nvidia?<\/h3><\/summary>\n    <div class=\"io-faq__a\">\n      <p>M\u00e1s a kock\u00e1zati profil. Az ASML v\u00e9dettebb (EUV-monop\u00f3lium, mindegy ki nyer a chipversenyben, mind t\u0151le vesz g\u00e9pet), de ciklikusabb \u00e9s lassabban n\u0151. Az Nvidia nagyobb n\u00f6veked\u00e9st k\u00edn\u00e1l, de val\u00f3s versennyel (AMD, hyperscaler-chipek) \u00e9s koncentr\u00e1ci\u00f3s kock\u00e1zattal. Az ASML a \u201ebiztosabb&#8221;, az Nvidia a \u201enagyobb t\u00e9t&#8221;.<\/p>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/details>\n  <details class=\"io-faq__item\">\n    <summary class=\"io-faq__q\"><h3>Jobb az ASML, mint a TSMC?<\/h3><\/summary>\n    <div class=\"io-faq__a\">\n      <p>Az \u00e1raz\u00e1sban a TSMC ma egy\u00e9rtelm\u0171en olcs\u00f3bb: a trailing P\/E ~30 vs. az ASML ~52, az EV\/EBITDA ~20 vs. ~41, \u00e9s a TSMC ROIC-ja (42%) \u00e9s brutt\u00f3 marzsa (64%) m\u00e9g magasabb is. Cser\u00e9be a TSMC \u00f6tsz\u00f6r t\u0151keig\u00e9nyesebb (gy\u00e1rakat \u00e9p\u00edt) \u00e9s tajvani geopolitikai kock\u00e1zattal terhelt, m\u00edg az ASML t\u0151kek\u00f6nny\u0171 monop\u00f3lium k\u00ednai export-kock\u00e1zattal. Mindkett\u0151 az AI-boom nyertese, de a monopol-pr\u00e9mium\u00e9rt az ASML-n\u00e9l ma dupla annyit kell fizetni.<\/p>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/details>\n  <details class=\"io-faq__item\">\n    <summary class=\"io-faq__q\"><h3>Mik az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny legnagyobb kock\u00e1zatai?<\/h3><\/summary>\n    <div class=\"io-faq__a\">\n      <p>N\u00e9gy f\u0151 kock\u00e1zat: a k\u00ednai exportkorl\u00e1toz\u00e1sok (a bev\u00e9tel 2024-ben ~36%-a onnan j\u00f6tt), a f\u00e9lvezet\u0151-ipar\u00e1g ciklikuss\u00e1ga (a rendszerelad\u00e1s m\u00e9g 2024-ben is visszaesett egy \u00e9vre), a High-NA EUV lass\u00fa bevezet\u00e9se (2025-ben csak 4 egys\u00e9g), \u00e9s a magas \u00e9rt\u00e9kelts\u00e9g, ami egy csal\u00f3d\u00e1sra \u00e9rz\u00e9kenny\u00e9 teszi az \u00e1rfolyamot.<\/p>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/details>\n  <details class=\"io-faq__item\">\n    <summary class=\"io-faq__q\"><h3>Mennyi ASML-t tartsak egy diverzifik\u00e1lt portf\u00f3li\u00f3ban?<\/h3><\/summary>\n    <div class=\"io-faq__a\">\n      <p>Ez egy\u00e9ni kock\u00e1zatt\u0171r\u00e9s k\u00e9rd\u00e9se, \u00e9s nem befektet\u00e9si tan\u00e1cs. Fontos tudni, hogy ha m\u00e1r van AI-adatk\u00f6zponti kitetts\u00e9ged (Nvidia, TSMC), az ASML nem diverzifik\u00e1l, hanem s\u0171r\u00edti ugyanazt a t\u00e9m\u00e1t \u2013 egy AI-capex-lassul\u00e1s mindet egyszerre \u00fctn\u00e9. A poz\u00edci\u00f3m\u00e9retn\u00e9l \u00e9rdemes a rejtett koncentr\u00e1ci\u00f3t figyelembe venni.<\/p>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/details>\n  <p class=\"io-faq__disclaimer\">\n     <strong>Jogi \u00e9s felel\u0151ss\u00e9gi nyilatkozat (aka. disclaimer):<\/strong> a cikkeim mag\u00e1nv\u00e9lem\u00e9nyt tartalmaznak, kiz\u00e1r\u00f3lag a saj\u00e1t \u00e9s az olvas\u00f3k\u00f6z\u00f6ns\u00e9g sz\u00f3rakoztat\u00e1s\u00e1ra \u00edrom \u0151ket. Az itt megjelen\u0151 cikkek semmilyen form\u00e1ban NEM mer\u00edtik ki a befektet\u00e9si tan\u00e1csad\u00e1s t\u00e9mak\u00f6r\u00e9t. Az itt le\u00edrtak kiz\u00e1r\u00f3lag inform\u00e1ci\u00f3s tartalomnak tekinthet\u0151k, \u00e9s NEM \u00e9rtelmezhet\u0151ek aj\u00e1nlatt\u00e9telnek. A meghozott d\u00f6nt\u00e9seitek\u00e9rt KIZ\u00c1R\u00d3LAG TI vagytok a felel\u0151sek.\n\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">\n{\n  \"@context\": \"https:\/\/schema.org\",\n  \"@graph\": [\n\n    {\n      \"@id\": \"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/asml-reszveny-jo-befektetes-az-ai-rali-utan\/#article\",\n      \"about\": {\n        \"@type\": \"Corporation\",\n        \"name\": \"ASML Holding N.V.\",\n        \"alternateName\": \"ASML\",\n        \"tickerSymbol\": \"ASML\",\n        \"url\": \"https:\/\/www.asml.com\/\",\n        \"foundingDate\": \"1984\",\n        \"description\": \"Holland, veldhoveni sz\u00e9khely\u0171 f\u00e9lvezet\u0151ipari berendez\u00e9sgy\u00e1rt\u00f3, amely a vil\u00e1gon egyed\u00fclik\u00e9nt gy\u00e1rt sorozatban EUV (extr\u00e9m ultraibolya) litogr\u00e1fiai g\u00e9peket. Term\u00e9kei n\u00e9lk\u00fcl\u00f6zhetetlenek a legfejlettebb cs\u00edksz\u00e9less\u00e9g\u0171 chipek, k\u00f6zt\u00fck minden fejlett AI-processzor gy\u00e1rt\u00e1s\u00e1hoz. Az Euronext Amszterdamon \u00e9s a Nasdaqon jegyzett.\"\n      },\n      \"mentions\": [\n        { \"@type\": \"Corporation\", \"name\": \"Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited\", \"alternateName\": \"TSMC\", \"tickerSymbol\": \"TSM\" },\n        { \"@type\": \"Corporation\", \"name\": \"NVIDIA Corporation\", \"tickerSymbol\": \"NVDA\" },\n        { \"@type\": \"Corporation\", \"name\": \"Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.\", \"alternateName\": \"AMD\", \"tickerSymbol\": \"AMD\" },\n        { \"@type\": \"Corporation\", \"name\": \"Intel Corporation\", \"tickerSymbol\": \"INTC\" },\n        { \"@type\": \"Corporation\", \"name\": \"Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.\", \"tickerSymbol\": \"005930\" },\n        { \"@type\": \"Corporation\", \"name\": \"Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation\", \"alternateName\": \"SMIC\", \"tickerSymbol\": \"688981\" },\n        { \"@type\": \"Corporation\", \"name\": \"Canon Inc.\", \"tickerSymbol\": \"7751\" },\n        { \"@type\": \"Corporation\", \"name\": \"Nikon Corporation\", \"tickerSymbol\": \"7731\" },\n        { \"@type\": \"Corporation\", \"name\": \"Apple Inc.\", \"tickerSymbol\": \"AAPL\" },\n        { \"@type\": \"Corporation\", \"name\": \"Microsoft Corporation\", \"tickerSymbol\": \"MSFT\" },\n        { \"@type\": \"Corporation\", \"name\": \"Alphabet Inc.\", \"tickerSymbol\": \"GOOGL\" },\n        { \"@type\": \"Corporation\", \"name\": \"Amazon.com, Inc.\", \"tickerSymbol\": \"AMZN\" },\n        { \"@type\": \"Corporation\", \"name\": \"Synopsys, Inc.\", \"tickerSymbol\": \"SNPS\" },\n        { \"@type\": \"Corporation\", \"name\": \"Cadence Design Systems, Inc.\", \"tickerSymbol\": \"CDNS\" },\n        { \"@type\": \"Organization\", \"name\": \"Carl Zeiss SMT GmbH\", \"description\": \"Az ASML EUV-g\u00e9peinek optikai rendszer\u00e9t sz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00f3 n\u00e9met besz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00f3.\" }\n      ],\n      \"citation\": [\n        {\n          \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n          \"name\": \"ASML Holding N.V. hivatalos v\u00e1llalati oldal\",\n          \"publisher\": { \"@type\": \"Organization\", \"name\": \"ASML Holding N.V.\" },\n          \"url\": \"https:\/\/www.asml.com\/\"\n        },\n        {\n          \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n          \"name\": \"ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny adatlap \u00e9s historikus \u00e9rt\u00e9kelts\u00e9g\",\n          \"publisher\": { \"@type\": \"Organization\", \"name\": \"iO Charts\" },\n          \"url\": \"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/stocks\/ASML\"\n        },\n        {\n          \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n          \"name\": \"ASML p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi adatok \u00e9s \u00e9rt\u00e9kelts\u00e9gi mutat\u00f3k\",\n          \"publisher\": { \"@type\": \"Organization\", \"name\": \"Fiscal.ai\" },\n          \"url\": \"https:\/\/fiscal.ai\/\"\n        },\n        {\n          \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n          \"name\": \"TechSpot f\u00e9lvezet\u0151ipari tud\u00f3s\u00edt\u00e1sok\",\n          \"publisher\": { \"@type\": \"Organization\", \"name\": \"TechSpot\" },\n          \"url\": \"https:\/\/www.techspot.com\/\"\n        }\n      ]\n    },\n\n    {\n      \"@id\": \"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/e285f855a6a9b806cd03c0b62f1c5831\",\n      \"alternateName\": [\"M\u00e1rton J. 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A min\u0151s\u00e9g nem k\u00e9rd\u00e9s, az \u00e1raz\u00e1s viszont alig hagy biztons\u00e1gi r\u00e1hagy\u00e1st \u2013 egy t\u00fcrelmes befektet\u0151nek egy ciklikus visszaes\u00e9s jobb bel\u00e9p\u0151t k\u00edn\u00e1lhat.\"\n          }\n        },\n        {\n          \"@type\": \"Question\",\n          \"name\": \"Mi\u00e9rt fontos az ASML az AI-chipek szempontj\u00e1b\u00f3l?\",\n          \"acceptedAnswer\": {\n            \"@type\": \"Answer\",\n            \"text\": \"Minden fejlett AI-chip (Nvidia, AMD, HBM-mem\u00f3ri\u00e1k) EUV-litogr\u00e1fi\u00e1val k\u00e9sz\u00fcl, \u00e9s a vil\u00e1gon egyetlen c\u00e9g gy\u00e1rt EUV-g\u00e9peket sorozatban: az ASML. A TSMC, a Samsung \u00e9s az Intel mind t\u0151le v\u00e1s\u00e1rol, \u00edgy az eg\u00e9sz AI-boom fizikailag \u00e1tmegy az ASML g\u00e9pein.\"\n          }\n        },\n        {\n          \"@type\": \"Question\",\n          \"name\": \"T\u00e9nyleg monop\u00f3liuma van az ASML-nek?\",\n          \"acceptedAnswer\": {\n            \"@type\": \"Answer\",\n            \"text\": \"Az EUV-litogr\u00e1fi\u00e1ban l\u00e9nyeg\u00e9ben igen: az ASML piaci r\u00e9szesed\u00e9se itt gyakorlatilag 100%, \u00e9s az eg\u00e9sz ipar\u00e1g \u00e9vente \u00f6sszesen csak 44-48 EUV-g\u00e9pet v\u00e1s\u00e1rol t\u0151le. A hagyom\u00e1nyosabb (DUV) g\u00e9pekn\u00e9l van n\u00e9mi verseny (Canon, Nikon), de a legfejlettebb, AI-hoz sz\u00fcks\u00e9ges cs\u00edksz\u00e9less\u00e9gekn\u00e9l nincs alternat\u00edva. A monop\u00f3liumot \u00e9vtizedes fejleszt\u00e9s \u00e9s egyed\u00fcl\u00e1ll\u00f3 besz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00f3i \u00f6kosziszt\u00e9ma v\u00e9di.\"\n          }\n        },\n        {\n          \"@type\": \"Question\",\n          \"name\": \"T\u00fal\u00e9rt\u00e9kelt az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny az AI-rali ut\u00e1n?\",\n          \"acceptedAnswer\": {\n            \"@type\": \"Answer\",\n            \"text\": \"A r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny egy \u00e9v alatt nagyj\u00e1b\u00f3l megdupl\u00e1z\u00f3dott, \u00e9s ~52-es trailing P\/E-n forog, mik\u00f6zben az FCF-hozama (1.81%) a bemutatott \u00e9vtized legalacsonyabbja \u2013 vagyis a saj\u00e1t t\u00f6rt\u00e9nelm\u00e9hez k\u00e9pest a legdr\u00e1g\u00e1bb v\u00e9g\u00e9n j\u00e1r. Nem felt\u00e9tlen\u00fcl lufi, de a mai \u00e1r a t\u00f6k\u00e9leteshez k\u00f6zeli v\u00e9grehajt\u00e1st \u00e1razza, kev\u00e9s biztons\u00e1gi r\u00e1hagy\u00e1ssal.\"\n          }\n        },\n        {\n          \"@type\": \"Question\",\n          \"name\": \"Jobb az ASML, mint az Nvidia?\",\n          \"acceptedAnswer\": {\n            \"@type\": \"Answer\",\n            \"text\": \"M\u00e1s a kock\u00e1zati profil. Az ASML v\u00e9dettebb (EUV-monop\u00f3lium, mindegy ki nyer a chipversenyben, mind t\u0151le vesz g\u00e9pet), de ciklikusabb \u00e9s lassabban n\u0151. Az Nvidia nagyobb n\u00f6veked\u00e9st k\u00edn\u00e1l, de val\u00f3s versennyel (AMD, hyperscaler-chipek) \u00e9s koncentr\u00e1ci\u00f3s kock\u00e1zattal. Az ASML a biztosabb, az Nvidia a nagyobb t\u00e9t.\"\n          }\n        },\n        {\n          \"@type\": \"Question\",\n          \"name\": \"Jobb az ASML, mint a TSMC?\",\n          \"acceptedAnswer\": {\n            \"@type\": \"Answer\",\n            \"text\": \"Az \u00e1raz\u00e1sban a TSMC ma egy\u00e9rtelm\u0171en olcs\u00f3bb: a trailing P\/E ~30 vs. az ASML ~52, az EV\/EBITDA ~20 vs. ~41, \u00e9s a TSMC ROIC-ja (42%) \u00e9s brutt\u00f3 marzsa (64%) m\u00e9g magasabb is. Cser\u00e9be a TSMC \u00f6tsz\u00f6r t\u0151keig\u00e9nyesebb (gy\u00e1rakat \u00e9p\u00edt) \u00e9s tajvani geopolitikai kock\u00e1zattal terhelt, m\u00edg az ASML t\u0151kek\u00f6nny\u0171 monop\u00f3lium k\u00ednai export-kock\u00e1zattal. Mindkett\u0151 az AI-boom nyertese, de a monopol-pr\u00e9mium\u00e9rt az ASML-n\u00e9l ma dupla annyit kell fizetni.\"\n          }\n        },\n        {\n          \"@type\": \"Question\",\n          \"name\": \"Mik az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny legnagyobb kock\u00e1zatai?\",\n          \"acceptedAnswer\": {\n            \"@type\": \"Answer\",\n            \"text\": \"N\u00e9gy f\u0151 kock\u00e1zat: a k\u00ednai exportkorl\u00e1toz\u00e1sok (a bev\u00e9tel 2024-ben ~36%-a onnan j\u00f6tt), a f\u00e9lvezet\u0151-ipar\u00e1g ciklikuss\u00e1ga (a rendszerelad\u00e1s m\u00e9g 2024-ben is visszaesett egy \u00e9vre), a High-NA EUV lass\u00fa bevezet\u00e9se (2025-ben csak 4 egys\u00e9g), \u00e9s a magas \u00e9rt\u00e9kelts\u00e9g, ami egy csal\u00f3d\u00e1sra \u00e9rz\u00e9kenny\u00e9 teszi az \u00e1rfolyamot.\"\n          }\n        },\n        {\n          \"@type\": \"Question\",\n          \"name\": \"Mennyi ASML-t tartsak egy diverzifik\u00e1lt portf\u00f3li\u00f3ban?\",\n          \"acceptedAnswer\": {\n            \"@type\": \"Answer\",\n            \"text\": \"Ez egy\u00e9ni kock\u00e1zatt\u0171r\u00e9s k\u00e9rd\u00e9se, \u00e9s nem befektet\u00e9si tan\u00e1cs. Fontos tudni, hogy ha m\u00e1r van AI-adatk\u00f6zponti kitetts\u00e9ged (Nvidia, TSMC), az ASML nem diverzifik\u00e1l, hanem s\u0171r\u00edti ugyanazt a t\u00e9m\u00e1t \u2013 egy AI-capex-lassul\u00e1s mindet egyszerre \u00fctn\u00e9. A poz\u00edci\u00f3m\u00e9retn\u00e9l \u00e9rdemes a rejtett koncentr\u00e1ci\u00f3t figyelembe venni.\"\n          }\n        }\n      ]\n    }\n  ]\n}\n<\/script>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Az ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny \u00e1rfolyama 2025-26-ban az AI hype hat\u00e1s\u00e1ra az egekbe emelkedett, kev\u00e9s c\u00e9g profit\u00e1lt ebb\u0151l annyira, mint a holland v\u00e1llalat. A r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny\u00e1r egy \u00e9v alatt nagyj\u00e1b\u00f3l megdupl\u00e1z\u00f3dott, \u00e9s sokan k\u00e9rdezik: van-e m\u00e9g t\u00e9r felfel\u00e9, vagy lek\u00e9st\u00fck a rallit? Ebben a cikkben v\u00e9gigveszem, mit\u0151l ennyire k\u00fcl\u00f6nleges az ASML, mennyit \u00e1raz be m\u00e1r a piac, hogyan [&hellip;]<\/p>\n<div class=\"read-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/asml-reszveny-jo-befektetes-az-ai-rali-utan\/\" class=\"btn btn-primary btn-lg\">Tov\u00e1bb<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"author":2,"featured_media":11999,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[31],"tags":[431,129,74,4,115,428,427],"class_list":["post-11983","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-reszvenyelemzes","tag-asml","tag-iocharts","tag-portfolioblogger","tag-reszveny","tag-reszvenyelemzes","tag-taiwan-semiconductors","tag-tsmc"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny: j\u00f3 befektet\u00e9s az AI-rali ut\u00e1n?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny: j\u00f3 befektet\u00e9s az az AI-rali ut\u00e1n? EUV-monop\u00f3lium, historikus cs\u00facs-\u00e9rt\u00e9kelts\u00e9g, TSMC-\u00f6sszevet\u00e9s \u00e9s a f\u0151 kock\u00e1zatok.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/iocharts.io\/blog\/asml-reszveny-jo-befektetes-az-ai-rali-utan\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hu_HU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny: j\u00f3 befektet\u00e9s az AI-rali ut\u00e1n?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ASML r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny: j\u00f3 befektet\u00e9s az az AI-rali ut\u00e1n? 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